Simulating transmission
- Disease trajectories can be generated using the R package
epidemics - Uncertainty should be included in model trajectories using a range of model parameter values
Choosing an appropriate model
- Existing mathematical models should be selected according to the research question
- It is important to check that a model has appropriate assumptions about transmission, outbreak potential, outcomes and interventions
Modelling interventions
- The effect of NPIs can be modelled as reducing contact rates between age groups or reducing the transmission rate of infection
- Vaccination can be modelled by assuming individuals move to a different disease state \(V\)
Comparing public health outcomes of interventions
- The counter factual scenario must be defined to make comparisons
- Scenarios can be compared using visualisations and by calculating outcomes averted