Create a short-term forecast

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• We can create short-term forecasts by making assumptions about the future behaviour of the reproduction number
• Incomplete case reporting can be accounted for in estimates

Estimation of outbreak severity

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• Use cfr to estimate severity

• Use cfr_static() to estimate the overall CFR with the latest data available.

• Use cfr_rolling() to show what the estimated CFR would be on each day of the outbreak.

• Use the delay_density argument to adjust the CFR by the corresponding delay distribution.

Account for superspreading

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• Use epicontacts to calculate the number of secondary cases cause by a particular individual from linelist and contact data.
• Use fitdistrplus to empirically estimate the offspring distribution from the number of secondary cases distribution.
• Use {superspreading} to estimate the probability of having clusters of a given size from primary cases and inform contact tracing efforts.

Simulate transmission chains

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• Use {epichains} to simulate the large outbreak potential of diseases with overdispersed offspring distributions.